We translate official evidence into everyday language. We do not create a climate forecast or blend different agencies’ probabilities.
The primary provider is the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC).
The hero follows the official ocean-and-atmosphere diagnosis. A temperature threshold by itself is not a diagnosis. A watch names a possible future phase.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ↗ · Issued 8 October 2026
A check date is not a new forecast.
The official NOAA probabilities are kept unchanged. Totals of 99 or 101 can reflect rounding. Only the drawn bar widths are normalized; 0% does not mean impossible.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ↗ · Issued 8 October 2026
A check date is not a new forecast. Associated NOAA diagnostic issue; source table displays month and year
The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) compares warmth in the monitored Pacific region with warmth across the wider tropics. NOAA adopted it in February 2026. The chart uses ERSSTv6, reference period 1991–2020. It contains no forecast line.
Three month periods overlap. Recent observations may be revised, so we preserve each published version. The traditional Oceanic Niño Index is a different series and is not joined to this one.
The source table provides no exact publication day. We show observation periods and check dates separately, and never invent an issue date.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ↗ · Publication day not supplied
A check date is not a new forecast. NOAA table does not state a publication day; observation periods retained
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the source for monsoon context. El Niño is only one influence: the Indian Ocean, the season and other weather systems also matter.
Southwest monsoon material applies to June–September. It is not presented as the current October–December northeast monsoon forecast. India cards summarize dated IMD rainfall, temperature and farming outlooks directly. Each shows the period, issue date, practical steps and source. Expired outlooks automatically give way to general official guidance, so October information is not presented as a later month’s forecast.
Scientific interpretation reviewer: Not yet appointed. Source summaries have been checked editorially; independent scientific review is still a public-launch requirement.
Heat precautions come from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). These are general precautions for hot conditions, not a heatwave alert. Outlooks include several climate influences; no crop loss, price change, disease outbreak or household bill is predicted from ENSO alone.
The scheduled ingestion job runs at 06:00 UTC daily. Sources usually publish monthly, so a daily check does not mean a new forecast. Validated releases are archived before the published manifest changes.
If a source changes unexpectedly, the update is staged for review. The previous approved diagnosis and outlook remain together. Observed history updates independently.
Our operating policy marks a monthly release overdue seven days after a known scheduled update, or after 45 days if the schedule is unknown. After 90 days it becomes an archive summary. These thresholds are our website policy, not NOAA rules.
Successful checks of an old release never reset its age. Forecast seasons that have ended are excluded from the default selection.
Operational owner: Must be named before public launch.
No account, location permission, analytics or tracking cookies are used by this release. Region selection is saved in the page URL. There are no automatic emergency alerts.
NOAA provides public government data; original agency links and terminology are retained. IMD resources are linked rather than republished in full. This website is a non-commercial educational project.