OFFICIAL FORECAST · THREE MONTH PERIODSForecast, not an observation
What may happen next?
This season
September 2026 – November 2026
El Niño100%
Neutral0%
La Niña0%
Most likely phase: El Niño
What changed since the previous update?
No comparable previous official outlook is available for this period. We will show a comparison once two matching published periods are available.
These are chances for the Pacific climate phase during this period, not the chance of rain where you live.
How should I read these chances?
The percentages come from NOAA’s official outlook. We do not combine them with another agency’s forecast. A source value of 0% does not mean impossible. The most likely phase can still fail to occur.
A check date is not a new forecast. Associated NOAA diagnostic issue; source table displays month and year
EVERYDAY CONTEXT
What this could mean for India
El Niño does not guarantee drought. The Indian Ocean, the season and other weather patterns also matter.
What does this mean for me?
For India now, check IMD’s October–December rain outlook. Southwest monsoon links describe a different season, not your current local forecast.
The link shows the latest approved information when opened.
☂IMD seasonal outlook
Seasonal rain
October: below-usual rain across India
For October 2026 / October–December 2026
IMD expects October rain across India to be below 85% of usual. October–December rain is most likely near usual in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Districts can differ.
What you can do
Prepare for uneven rain; check district warnings before outdoor plans.
Source and context
Regional outlook, not a district forecast. This includes several climate influences; it is not an impact attributed to El Niño alone.
IMD expects warmer-than-usual October days across most of India, with regional exceptions. Where post-monsoon rain is low, its outlook flags pressure on soil moisture and water availability.
What you can do
Use water carefully; move strenuous outdoor work to cooler hours.
Source and context
Regional outlook, not a district forecast. This includes several climate influences; it is not an impact attributed to El Niño alone.
Below-usual post-monsoon rain could leave less water for winter crops and increase irrigation needs. IMD recommends checking water availability and using irrigation efficiently. These are potential pressures, not a prediction of crop loss.
What you can do
Check soil moisture and available irrigation water before sowing.
Source and context
Regional outlook, not a district forecast. This includes several climate influences; it is not an impact attributed to El Niño alone.
Explore the observed record, with an accessible table.
UNDERSTAND IN ONE MINUTE
One ocean. A connected atmosphere.
1
The ocean changes
Part of the tropical Pacific stays warmer or cooler than usual.
→2
The air responds
Winds and tropical rainfall patterns change with the ocean.
→3
Weather patterns shift
Some places may be wetter, drier, warmer or cooler. The season matters.
El Niño happens when part of the tropical Pacific stays unusually warm and the ocean and atmosphere act together. This can shift rainfall and temperature patterns around the world.